Here’s something that we are taught very young; Our governments steer markets. We are taught what is decided in Canberra, in the White House, in Downing Street or in Bonn determines what markets everywhere are doing.
To be honest, I have always believed what happened in those places was interesting, but not important. What I have always thought was important was what the people believed, what people are actually doing with their money and what they think is likely to happen next month is important. We track that at CoreData. It’s interesting – and you ought to know that the rich lead the market by about 90 days on average.
It may be that once what happened in Canberra WAS important, but isn’t any more. It might be that the increasing flow of information and data has rendered the opinions of politicians impotent.
Last millennium for example when I was tracking things like monetary policy and the rate of borrowing, for the bank I was working for, when Paul Keating was Treasurer and then Prime Minister – I noticed that he didn’t actually need to change policy or alter the budget much to change the direction of the economy.
But he did talk about it. He would – before every budget – leak to the press that this year’s budget was going to be very bad, a recession budget, the recession that we have to have, that our dollar was the pacific peso and the markets would react.
Inevitably – the budget wouldn’t be terrible. The interest rate rises or falls wouldn’t be so bad and the populace would sigh in relief and normal service would be returned.